Low Energy Demand (LED) Scenario
Freight
The total road freight activity was approximately 11.5 billion tonne-kilometres in 2018, of which 81% were national journeys. Road-based freight transport increased by 110% between 1995 and 2018, with current projections foreseeing a further increase by 2.37 times between 2018 and 2050. We assume freight activity to go back to the 1995 level, that is, 1525 tonne-kilometres/capita in 2050 [1]. This is a reduction of about 36% from the 2018 level of 2375 tonne-kilometres/capita, the underlying narrative being, better logistics and efficiency improvements, reviving local economy, and taxes on foreign goods (hence lower foreign import). The total freight activity is then expected to be 9.7 billion tonne-kilometres in 2050, a total reduction of about 16% from that in 2018.
Passenger kilometres
Road-based passenger transport activity increased by about 56% between 2000 and 2018. The total passenger transport resulted in about 73.7 billion-passenger kilometres in 2018, which is about 15342 pkms/capita. At current level of projection, this increase to 17125 pkms/capita. In the LED scenario, we assume that the pkms/capita will decrease to 12000 owing to shorter travel distances and increased occupancy in vehicles. This results to a total of 76.2 billion pkms in 2050. Regarding this we assume short distance travel to increase by 5% in 2050 whereas medium and long distance journeys to decrease by 2.5% each. Table 1 shows the change in modal shares assumed in this LED scenario. Active modes such as walking and cycling have a much greater share in the LED scenario as compared to 2018. Share of private cars decrease by 21% and that of large PSVs increase by 9%.
| Mode | Short distance (< 5km) | Medium distance (5-30 km) | Long distance (> 30 km) | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2050_LED | 2018 | 2050_LED | 2018 | 2050_LED | 2018 | 2050_LED | |
| Private cars | 51% | 20% | 83% | 65% | 74% | 62% | 73% | 52% |
| Motor cycles | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Small PSVs | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Large PSVs | 8% | 13% | 13% | 27% | 16% | 24% | 14% | 23% |
| LUAS | 1% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Train | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% | 13% | 3% | 5% |
| Walking | 32% | 49% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 12% |
| Cycling | 5% | 14% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
Residential
The residential sector accounted for 24% of the energy consumed and about 10% of the CO2 emissions in 2018. At current level of projection, energy consumption of the housing stock is expected to increase by 13%. Further, about 70% of the population in Ireland lives in under occupied dwellings. In the LED scenario, we assume that the total area per person will be 42.5 m2 which is the European average [2]. In 2050, the housing stock is expected to consist of approximately 1.52 million old and 1.5 million new dwellings. We assume that the old housing stock will be at least B2 rated (100 kWh/m2) and the new housing stock will be at least A2 rated (50 kWh/m2) [3]. The residential energy consumption is then expected to decrease by 18% in 2050 from 2018 level. Table 2 shows the shares of residential energy demand in 2018 and 2050. Share of space heating decreases due to more compact houses and better insulation. Demand for pumps and fans increases due to greater mechanical ventilation needed in A rated dwellings.
| Residential demand | 2018 | 2050_LED |
|---|---|---|
| Space Heating | 73% | 56% |
| Water Heating | 24% | 30% |
| Lighting | 2% | 5% |
| Pumps & Fans | 1% | 8% |
| Space cooling | 0% | 1% |
Industry
The industrial sector was responsible for about 18% of the final energy consumption and about 7.7% of the total GHG emissions in 2018. The average energy intensity of industrial activity is expected to decline by 30% in the next decade [4]. A further decrease by 15% to 2050 is considered in the LED scenario (in total a 45% in energy intensity from current level). A 50% reduction in energy demand from cement industry is expected by 2050. In total, the industrial energy demand declines by 15% in 2050 as compared to 2018.
Services
Commercial and public services accounted for 14% of the total energy demand in Ireland in 2018. In the LED scenario, we consider the space constraint to be 16 m2/capita and energy consumption to be 571 MJ/m2 in 2050 [5]. This results in a decrease of energy demand by 86% in 2050 as compared to 2018 level.
References
- Kai Kuhnhenn, Luis Costa, Eva Mahnke, Linda Schneider, Steffen Lange. A Societal Transformation Scenario for Staying Below 1.5°C. s.l. : Heinrich Böll Foundation and Konzeptwerk Neue Ökonomie, 2020.
- Energy. European Commission. [Online] European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/energy/content/housing-space-person_en.
- DOMESTIC BUILDING ENERGY RATINGS. Central Statistics Office. [Online] https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/surveybackgroundnotes/domesticbuildingenergyratings/
- IEA. World Energy Outlook 2020. Paris: International Energy Agency, 2020.
- A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. Arnulf Grubler, Charlie Wilson, Nuno Bento, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Volker Krey, David L. McCollum, Narasimha D. Rao, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Simon De Stercke, Jonathan Cullen, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Fei Guo, Matt Gidden, Petr Havlík, Daniel Huppmann. s.l. : Nature Energy volume , 2018, Vol. 3.