TIMES-Ireland Model
The TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) is being developed at UCC to inform future possible decarbonisation pathways for the Irish energy system. We give it information on the Irish energy system as it is today, a set of constraints, including on emissions, and the best available projections for what the future technology and fuel options are.
It then finds the lowest-cost pathway to re-architect and restructure Ireland’s entire energy system, for electricity, transport, industry, residential and commercial, and novel fuels like hydrogen and bioenergy, to reduce emissions to meet the target. It accounts for all the linkages in the system; rather than transform it one piece at a time, it transforms the entire system, accounting for all the sector couplings and trade-offs, even between distant parts of the system.
Rather than offering a single prescriptive plan, the model helps structure our discussions of the trade-offs and uncertainties; and helps us develop meaningful, consistent narratives of energy transformation, while considering a huge range of possible futures.
TIM produces energy system pathways for energy supply and demand in Ireland consistent with either a carbon budget or a decarbonisation target. Key inputs include primary energy resource availability and costs, the technical and cost evolution of new mitigation options, maximum feasible uptake rates of new technologies and, crucially, climate policy targets. The model outputs give the lowest-cost configuration of the energy system (in terms of investment in and operation of energy technologies and fuel mix) which meets future energy demands at the lowest cost, while respecting technical, social and policy constraints.
Alternatively, TIM can be used to assess the implications of certain policies, namely regulatory or technology target-setting (for example, biofuels blending obligation or sales/stock share target for electric vehicles).
More information on the TIMES model generator and specific information about TIM can be found in the Documentation.
TIM is the successor model to the Irish TIMES Model, which has been developed by the MaREI Energy Policy and Modelling Group (EPMG) at University College Cork since 2010 and funded through various projects by the EPA, SEAI, SFI and the NTR Foundation, has played a significant role in informing the evidence base of Irish climate target setting.
The re-development process has been undertaken to better inform increased national climate mitigation ambition, to take into account the changing energy technology landscape, and to take advantage of new advances in energy systems optimisation modelling techniques.
This work is being undertaken as part of a number of research projects, including CAPACITY, funded by the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications, the SFI-funded CHIMERA project, MaREI PhD support, and core academic staff in UCC.
Team
Original developers of the TIMES-Ireland Model
- Vahid Aryanpur
- Olexandr Balyk
- Alessandro Chiodi
- Hannah Daly
- Ankita Gaur
- James Glynn
- Jason McGuire
- Xiufeng Yue
Contributors
- Paul Deane
- Maurizio Gargiulo
- Gerald Lyons
- Brian O'Gallachoir
- Fionn Rogan
- Andrew Smith